Prelims1
Bantamweight
Geraldo de Freitas vs Tony Gravely
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Geraldo de Freitas
Tony Gravely
42%
58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
29
Age
29
12-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
23-10
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
de Freitas: 76 sig / 1 TD ·
Gravely: 49 sig / 7 TD
Geraldo de Freitas
Tony Gravely
36
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
68
62
Total strikes landed
57
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.7
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
138s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Geraldo de Freitas
"Spartan"
12-7
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tony Gravely
23-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—