Back to UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Alexandr Romanov vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alexandr Romanov
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
79% 21%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
30
Age
Δ 6y
35
19-3
Career record
Δ 19 pp
23-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Romanov: 6 sig / 2 TD · Rogerio de Lima: 18 sig / 0 TD
Alexandr Romanov
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
27
Sig strikes landed
29
132
Sig strikes attempted
61
67
Total strikes landed
46
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
322s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Alexandr Romanov

"King Kong"
19-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
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Blue corner
W1

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

"Pezao"
23-10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
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L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
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W UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—