Back to UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira
Prelims1 Featherweight

Darren Elkins vs Eduardo Garagorri

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Eduardo Garagorri
66% 34%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
29-13
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-3
L4
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Elkins: 32 sig / 7 TD · Garagorri: 36 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Eduardo Garagorri
43
Sig strikes landed
46
96
Sig strikes attempted
90
70
Total strikes landed
59
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
9.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
296s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
26%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L4

Darren Elkins

"The Damage"
29-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 22 fights · 14-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
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L UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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Blue corner
L1

Eduardo Garagorri

13-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
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