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Main Women's Strawweight

Pauline Macias vs Gloria de Paula

DWCS 4.10 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Pauline Macias
Gloria de Paula
50% 50%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Macias: 12 sig / 2 TD · de Paula: 69 sig / 0 TD
Pauline Macias
Gloria de Paula
32
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
77
60
Total strikes landed
64
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
184s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Pauline Macias

"PITA"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner

Gloria de Paula

"Glorinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25