Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tucker Lutz
Sherrard Blackledge
63%
37%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
13-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
6-1
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lutz: 34 sig / 4 TD ·
Blackledge: 37 sig / 2 TD
Tucker Lutz
Sherrard Blackledge
87
Sig strikes landed
60
150
Sig strikes attempted
154
86
Total strikes landed
73
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
8.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
94s
Control time
221s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tucker Lutz
"Top Gun"
13-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 4.5
—
Blue corner
W1
Sherrard Blackledge
"The Thriller"
6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 4.6
—