Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Maximov
Oscar Cota
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
23
Age
Δ 13y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maximov: 37 sig / 2 TD ·
Cota: 5 sig / 0 TD
Nick Maximov
Oscar Cota
39
Sig strikes landed
38
80
Sig strikes attempted
61
49
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
118s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Maximov
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
Oscar Cota
"Elevation"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36