Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chelsea Hackett
Victoria Leonardo
70%
30%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
22
Age
Δ 8y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hackett: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Leonardo: 47 sig / 3 TD
Chelsea Hackett
Victoria Leonardo
34
Sig strikes landed
33
75
Sig strikes attempted
68
58
Total strikes landed
62
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chelsea Hackett
"Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
22
Blue corner
Victoria Leonardo
"Fury"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31