Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Nikolas Motta
Joe Lowry
66%
34%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Motta: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Lowry: 54 sig / 0 TD
Nikolas Motta
Joe Lowry
37
Sig strikes landed
24
68
Sig strikes attempted
55
60
Total strikes landed
35
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
149s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1
Joe Lowry
9-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 2.8
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