Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Jacoby
Justin Ledet
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
33
Age
Δ 0y
32
22-10-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
9-5
L2
Current streak
L3
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jacoby: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Ledet: 10 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Jacoby
Justin Ledet
34
Sig strikes landed
38
88
Sig strikes attempted
96
48
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.80
Knockdowns
0.40
83s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
22-10-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
L3
Justin Ledet
"El Blanco"
9-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—