Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Miles Johns
Kevin Natividad
68%
32%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Johns: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Natividad: 33 sig / 0 TD
Miles Johns
Kevin Natividad
31
Sig strikes landed
30
65
Sig strikes attempted
64
50
Total strikes landed
46
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
177s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
15-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
Blue corner
Kevin Natividad
"Quicksand"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28