Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cole Williams
Jason Witt
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
37
Age
Δ 3y
34
11-4
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-10
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Williams: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Witt: 20 sig / 2 TD
Cole Williams
Jason Witt
32
Sig strikes landed
30
83
Sig strikes attempted
79
56
Total strikes landed
61
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
153s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cole Williams
"Havoc"
11-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Jason Witt
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
19-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—