Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean Strickland
Jack Marshman
84%
16%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
32-7
Career record
Δ 14 pp
23-11
W1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Strickland: 106 sig / 0 TD ·
Marshman: 48 sig / 0 TD
Sean Strickland
Jack Marshman
55
Sig strikes landed
38
136
Sig strikes attempted
114
65
Total strikes landed
41
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
63s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sean Strickland
32-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Jack Marshman
"The Hammer"
23-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—