Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Adrian Yanez
Victor Rodriguez
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Yanez: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Rodriguez: 6 sig / 0 TD
Adrian Yanez
Victor Rodriguez
41
Sig strikes landed
32
85
Sig strikes attempted
71
57
Total strikes landed
40
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Adrian Yanez
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Victor Rodriguez
"Vicious"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
28