Prelims1
Lightweight
Chris Gruetzemacher vs Alexander Hernandez
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chris Gruetzemacher
Alexander Hernandez
49%
51%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
16-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gruetzemacher: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Hernandez: 29 sig / 0 TD
Chris Gruetzemacher
Alexander Hernandez
36
Sig strikes landed
44
63
Sig strikes attempted
108
41
Total strikes landed
56
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Gruetzemacher
"Gritz"
16-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexander Hernandez
"El Gran Chango"
18-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—