Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
King Green
Thiago Moises
69%
31%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
34
Age
Δ 8y
26
36-17-1
Career record
Δ 0 pp
20-10
W3
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Green: 85 sig / 2 TD ·
Moises: 42 sig / 2 TD
King Green
Thiago Moises
55
Sig strikes landed
41
105
Sig strikes attempted
95
73
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
115s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
Blue corner
W1
Thiago Moises
20-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—