Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Holland
Charlie Ontiveros
84%
16%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 7"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
W3
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Holland: 11 sig / 2 TD ·
Ontiveros: 2 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Holland
Charlie Ontiveros
57
Sig strikes landed
28
105
Sig strikes attempted
71
81
Total strikes landed
41
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
167s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
30-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
Blue corner
Charlie Ontiveros
"American Bad Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
29