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Main Women's Flyweight

Katlyn Cerminara vs Cynthia Calvillo

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Katlyn Cerminara
Cynthia Calvillo
75% 25%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
32
Age
Δ 2y
33
18-7
Career record
Δ 13 pp
10-6-1
L1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerminara: 69 sig / 0 TD · Calvillo: 60 sig / 1 TD
Katlyn Cerminara
Cynthia Calvillo
71
Sig strikes landed
58
173
Sig strikes attempted
145
91
Total strikes landed
80
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Katlyn Cerminara

"Blonde Fighter"
18-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
W UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
L UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
W UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
W UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Blue corner
W1

Cynthia Calvillo

10-6-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 8 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
D UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
W UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
L UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm