Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Paul Craig
67%
33%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
39
Age
Δ 6y
33
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-10-1
W1
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Rua: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Craig: 29 sig / 4 TD
Mauricio Rua
Paul Craig
35
Sig strikes landed
29
61
Sig strikes attempted
62
50
Total strikes landed
37
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
123s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mauricio Rua
"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
18-10-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—