Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mike Perry
Tim Means
45%
55%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
29
Age
Δ 8y
37
15-8
Career record
Δ 0 pp
34-17-1
W1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Perry: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Means: 128 sig / 0 TD
Mike Perry
Tim Means
65
Sig strikes landed
74
123
Sig strikes attempted
133
63
Total strikes landed
79
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
Blue corner
W1
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
22 fights · 12-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—