Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kyle Daukaus
Dustin Stoltzfus
68%
32%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Daukaus: 64 sig / 2 TD ·
Stoltzfus: 32 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Daukaus
Dustin Stoltzfus
38
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
61
60
Total strikes landed
58
2.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
296s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kyle Daukaus
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
Dustin Stoltzfus
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29