Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Louis Cosce
Sasha Palatnikov
70%
30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
25
Age
Δ 6y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Cosce: 99 sig / 1 TD ·
Palatnikov: 125 sig / 1 TD
Louis Cosce
Sasha Palatnikov
34
Sig strikes landed
35
71
Sig strikes attempted
73
49
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Louis Cosce
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Sasha Palatnikov
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
32