Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alan Jouban
Jared Gooden
28%
72%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
39
Age
Δ 12y
27
L1
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Jouban: 168 sig / 0 TD ·
Gooden: 100 sig / 1 TD
Alan Jouban
Jared Gooden
49
Sig strikes landed
48
108
Sig strikes attempted
110
56
Total strikes landed
57
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
78s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
17-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
Blue corner
Jared Gooden
"NiteTrain"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27