Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Rodriguez
Nicolas Dalby
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
21-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-6-1
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Dalby: 50 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Rodriguez
Nicolas Dalby
55
Sig strikes landed
45
110
Sig strikes attempted
133
66
Total strikes landed
64
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.6
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
21s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
21-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
24-6-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
6 fights · 2-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—