Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ali AlQaisi
Tony Kelley
52%
48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
8-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
8-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
AlQaisi: 29 sig / 5 TD ·
Kelley: 23 sig / 0 TD
Ali AlQaisi
Tony Kelley
68
Sig strikes landed
63
136
Sig strikes attempted
131
87
Total strikes landed
71
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
143s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ali AlQaisi
"The Royal Fighter"
8-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
Blue corner
L1
Tony Kelley
"Primetime"
8-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—