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Impa Kasanganay vs Joaquin Buckley

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen ·Flash Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Impa Kasanganay
Joaquin Buckley
48% 52%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
27
Age
Δ 0y
26
10-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
21-9
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Kasanganay: 28 sig / 0 TD · Buckley: 29 sig / 1 TD
Impa Kasanganay
Joaquin Buckley
54
Sig strikes landed
68
124
Sig strikes attempted
144
55
Total strikes landed
69
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
29s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Impa Kasanganay

"Tshilobo"
10-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
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Blue corner
L1

Joaquin Buckley

"New Mansa"
21-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
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