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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Chris Daukaus vs Rodrigo Nascimento

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen ·Flash Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Chris Daukaus
Rodrigo Nascimento
45% 55%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
13-7
Career record
Δ 15 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Daukaus: 13 sig / 0 TD · Nascimento: 1 sig / 0 TD
Chris Daukaus
Rodrigo Nascimento
24
Sig strikes landed
26
41
Sig strikes attempted
53
30
Total strikes landed
33
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
41s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Chris Daukaus

13-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
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Blue corner
W1

Rodrigo Nascimento

"Ze Colmeia"
12-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
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