Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tom Aspinall
Alan Baudot
79%
21%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Aspinall: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Baudot: 3 sig / 0 TD
Tom Aspinall
Alan Baudot
28
Sig strikes landed
10
49
Sig strikes attempted
23
36
Total strikes landed
13
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
245s
Control time
33s
Method
Decision
17%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tom Aspinall
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
Alan Baudot
"The Black Samourai"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33