Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ben Rothwell
Marcin Tybura
72%
28%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
39
Age
Δ 4y
35
40-14
Career record
Δ 2 pp
28-11
W2
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rothwell: 89 sig / 0 TD ·
Tybura: 94 sig / 1 TD
Ben Rothwell
Marcin Tybura
47
Sig strikes landed
52
106
Sig strikes attempted
101
59
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ben Rothwell
40-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—