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Prelims1 Lightweight

Mateusz Gamrot vs Guram Kutateladze

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie ·Flash Forum
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mateusz Gamrot
Guram Kutateladze
82% 18%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gamrot: 52 sig / 5 TD · Kutateladze: 37 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Gamrot
Guram Kutateladze
38
Sig strikes landed
30
75
Sig strikes attempted
72
56
Total strikes landed
46
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
163s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Mateusz Gamrot

"Gamer"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
Blue corner

Guram Kutateladze

"Georgian Viking"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29