Main
Featherweight
Thomas Almeida vs Jonathan Martinez
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thomas Almeida
Jonathan Martinez
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
22-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-6
L2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Almeida: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Martinez: 73 sig / 0 TD
Thomas Almeida
Jonathan Martinez
47
Sig strikes landed
60
113
Sig strikes attempted
126
54
Total strikes landed
75
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
52s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Thomas Almeida
"Thominhas"
22-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
20-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
L
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—