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Tucker Lutz vs Chase Gibson

DWCS 4.5 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tucker Lutz
Chase Gibson
74% 26%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
26
Age
Δ 4y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lutz: 96 sig / 0 TD · Gibson: 47 sig / 0 TD
Tucker Lutz
Chase Gibson
38
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
75
55
Total strikes landed
48
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tucker Lutz

"Top Gun"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Chase Gibson

"El Guero"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31