Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Sabina Mazo vs Justine Kish
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sabina Mazo
Justine Kish
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
64"
24
Age
Δ 9y
32
10-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
8-4
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Mazo: 131 sig / 0 TD ·
Kish: 93 sig / 1 TD
Sabina Mazo
Justine Kish
91
Sig strikes landed
64
198
Sig strikes attempted
165
117
Total strikes landed
92
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
201s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sabina Mazo
"Colombian Queen"
10-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W1
Justine Kish
8-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—