Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Augusto Sakai
79%
21%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
40
Age
Δ 11y
29
48-19
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-5-1
W1
Current streak
W4
18
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Overeem: 92 sig / 3 TD ·
Sakai: 99 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Augusto Sakai
47
Sig strikes landed
51
92
Sig strikes attempted
112
61
Total strikes landed
68
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Augusto Sakai
17-5-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—