Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Casey Kenney
Alatengheili
68%
32%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
17-4-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-10-2
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kenney: 109 sig / 0 TD ·
Alatengheili: 46 sig / 0 TD
Casey Kenney
Alatengheili
40
Sig strikes landed
34
91
Sig strikes attempted
90
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.0
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Casey Kenney
17-4-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
W2
Alatengheili
"The Mongolian Knight"
18-10-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—