Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacob Silva
Jeff Molina
27%
73%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 9y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Silva: 83 sig / 2 TD ·
Molina: 76 sig / 0 TD
Jacob Silva
Jeff Molina
33
Sig strikes landed
39
66
Sig strikes attempted
84
50
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jacob Silva
"Lil Animal"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Jeff Molina
"El Jefe"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23