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Marcin Prachnio vs Mike Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marcin Prachnio
Mike Rodriguez
57% 43%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 10"
82"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
17-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-8
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Prachnio: 14 sig / 0 TD · Rodriguez: 21 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Prachnio
Mike Rodriguez
20
Sig strikes landed
30
37
Sig strikes attempted
49
26
Total strikes landed
38
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.80
79s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
10%
KO/TKO
74%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Marcin Prachnio

17-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
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L UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
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Blue corner
L1

Mike Rodriguez

"Slo Mike"
11-8 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
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