Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Pedro Munhoz
Frankie Edgar
58%
42%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
34
Age
Δ 5y
39
20-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
23-12-1
L1
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Munhoz: 166 sig / 0 TD ·
Edgar: 135 sig / 2 TD
Pedro Munhoz
Frankie Edgar
76
Sig strikes landed
77
166
Sig strikes attempted
172
90
Total strikes landed
93
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
49s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
20-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
L2
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
19 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—