🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Justin Gaethje
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
30-0
Career record
Δ 15 pp
28-5
W8
Current streak
W4
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nurmagomedov: 26 sig / 2 TD ·
Gaethje: 29 sig / 0 TD
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Justin Gaethje
68
Sig strikes landed
52
158
Sig strikes attempted
108
107
Total strikes landed
73
4.5
Takedowns landed
0.0
7.6
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
357s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
30-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 12-0
Last 5
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W4
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—