Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Irwin Rivera
Ali AlQaisi
56%
44%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rivera: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
AlQaisi: 44 sig / 2 TD
Irwin Rivera
Ali AlQaisi
38
Sig strikes landed
41
88
Sig strikes attempted
82
44
Total strikes landed
54
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Irwin Rivera
"The Beast"
10-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
Blue corner
Ali AlQaisi
"The Royal Fighter"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30