Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ronaldo Rodriguez
Jerome Rivera
81%
19%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
21
Age
Δ 4y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 19 sig / 2 TD ·
Rivera: 48 sig / 0 TD
Ronaldo Rodriguez
Jerome Rivera
38
Sig strikes landed
34
69
Sig strikes attempted
73
56
Total strikes landed
45
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
203s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ronaldo Rodriguez
"Lazy Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21
Blue corner
Jerome Rivera
"Renegade"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25