Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ty Flores
Dustin Jacoby
43%
57%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
27
Age
Δ 6y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Flores: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Jacoby: 117 sig / 1 TD
Ty Flores
Dustin Jacoby
32
Sig strikes landed
39
70
Sig strikes attempted
81
43
Total strikes landed
58
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
85s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ty Flores
"Big Medicine"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
Blue corner
Dustin Jacoby
"The Hanyak"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32