Back to UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Carlos Felipe vs Serghei Spivac

UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 ·Flash Forum
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Carlos Felipe
Serghei Spivac
49% 51%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
26
Age
26
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Felipe: 44 sig / 0 TD · Spivac: 73 sig / 3 TD
Carlos Felipe
Serghei Spivac
31
Sig strikes landed
30
52
Sig strikes attempted
64
47
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
98s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Carlos Felipe

"Boi"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L1

Serghei Spivac

"Polar Bear"
18-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
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