Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
John Phillips
Khamzat Chimaev
36%
64%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Phillips: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Chimaev: 43 sig / 2 TD
John Phillips
Khamzat Chimaev
26
Sig strikes landed
36
58
Sig strikes attempted
71
41
Total strikes landed
55
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
53s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Phillips
"The Welsh Wrecking Machine"
23-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
Blue corner
Khamzat Chimaev
"Borz"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26