Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Blagoy Ivanov
Augusto Sakai
50%
50%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
34
Age
Δ 4y
29
19-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-5-1
L1
Current streak
W3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ivanov: 66 sig / 1 TD ·
Sakai: 78 sig / 0 TD
Blagoy Ivanov
Augusto Sakai
51
Sig strikes landed
65
126
Sig strikes attempted
150
64
Total strikes landed
82
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
47s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Blagoy Ivanov
"Baga"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
Blue corner
W3
Augusto Sakai
17-5-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—