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Main Heavyweight

Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Walt Harris
93% 7%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
40
Age
Δ 3y
37
47-20
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-10
L1
Current streak
W3
17
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Overeem: 68 sig / 1 TD · Harris: 25 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Walt Harris
30
Sig strikes landed
23
45
Sig strikes attempted
44
43
Total strikes landed
35
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
116s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
13%
KO/TKO
81%
Submission
5%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Alistair Overeem

"The Demolition Man"
47-20 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
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W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
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W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
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L UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
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L UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
Blue corner
W3

Walt Harris

"The Big Ticket"
14-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 13 fights · 6-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
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W UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
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L UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—