Prelims1
Heavyweight
Chase Sherman vs Ike Villanueva
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Sherman
Ike Villanueva
68%
32%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
L3
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sherman: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Villanueva: 16 sig / 0 TD
Chase Sherman
Ike Villanueva
62
Sig strikes landed
49
133
Sig strikes attempted
106
80
Total strikes landed
62
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.0
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
71s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
Blue corner
Ike Villanueva
"Hurricane"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36