Main
Lightweight
Michael Johnson vs Thiago Moises
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Thiago Moises
38%
62%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
25-21
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-11
L2
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Johnson: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Moises: 1 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Thiago Moises
52
Sig strikes landed
48
113
Sig strikes attempted
108
71
Total strikes landed
63
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
76s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
22 fights · 11-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
Blue corner
L1
Thiago Moises
19-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—