Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Dan Hooker
81%
19%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
30-11
Career record
Δ 9 pp
25-14
L1
Current streak
W3
23
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Poirier: 153 sig / 1 TD ·
Hooker: 155 sig / 4 TD
Dustin Poirier
Dan Hooker
78
Sig strikes landed
69
133
Sig strikes attempted
150
101
Total strikes landed
84
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
23 fights · 17-5
Last 5
L
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W3
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—