🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Yoel Romero
93%
7%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
31
Age
Δ 12y
43
25-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-6
W7
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Adesanya: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Romero: 40 sig / 0 TD
Israel Adesanya
Yoel Romero
79
Sig strikes landed
60
173
Sig strikes attempted
130
94
Total strikes landed
81
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
48s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
L2
Yoel Romero
"Soldier of God"
13-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
43
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—