Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Conor McGregor
Donald Cerrone
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
22-7
Career record
Δ 9 pp
36-18
L1
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McGregor: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 0 sig / 0 TD
Conor McGregor
Donald Cerrone
63
Sig strikes landed
38
118
Sig strikes attempted
105
69
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
92s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
L2
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
33 fights · 23-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—